Ideas of a Gulf Union

This past week Professor Webb brought to my attention a great article from online news website www.al-monitor.com about the GCC's inability to successfully play a role as a collective security institution.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/03/gulf-union-is-the-solution.html

The article talks about a conference held in Bahrain this past March. For those of you who don't know, Bahrain has been dealing with severe protests during the Arab Spring. This conference was created to discuss security issues and how to deal with them in both Bahrain and in the GCC. The conference identified three things that governments in the GCC need to address: political reform, social justice, and establishing a Gulf Union.

The Arab Spring has sent a shock-wave of political activism throughout the Middle East but in the Gulf only Bahrain has seen severe threats to the current Monarchy. However in other GCC states smaller protests have occurred and governments anticipated the Arab Spring with political reformation measures. I would also have to argue that successful domestic control has kept a lid on any protests coming up elsewhere in the Gulf.

What really interests me in this article is the suggestion of creating a Gulf Union to better deal with the collective security of GCC states and to balance the power in Gulf. So far the GCC states have had a lack of coordination in creating collective security for its members. Iran and Iraq have traditionally been the two other powers in the Gulf while the GCC states have relied on the US to bolster its defenses and provide deterrence. Currently the only real international security force the GCC has is the Peninsula Shield Force which is less than 60,000 troops. This force played its first international role in Bahrain in 2011. As the article states, creating a new power bloc out of the GCC states would counter Iraq and Iran while getting rid of reliance on foreign powers. The only way to do this is to tie the GCC states closer together.

The Peninsula Shield Force on its way to Bahrain

I've read other articles before about creating a political, economic, and social bloc from the GCC states like this article suggests and every time individual countries own interests are the downfall to the plan. The GCC states peg their currencies to the US dollar and I know Oman has scoffed at the idea of ever joining a regional currency. Also, political elitism among the ruling families of the states would need to be bridged to even get anywhere past the idea stage. I truly think this is one of the main problems the GCC faces because ever since the British withdrawal in the late 1960's fighting between rulers have halted political talks. However, identity may offer a way to overcome issues since the other powers in the Gulf are not necessarily Gulf Arab. Iran and Iraq have their own identities as well. The Arab Spring might be the needed message to the GCC governments that it is time to consider a Gulf Union.

individuals and international politics

This week's post is going to focus in on how much of an influence individuals have on international politics. I believe this is such a complex thing to write about so I'm going to focus in on a two people and contrast between them. The first person is Orde Wingate and the second is John Glubb. Both men were British officers during WWI-WWII and served in the Middle East, particularly in Palestine/Jordan and therefore have ties to the era of the formation of Israel and the immediate consequences after. I believe their impact on the region is considerable and important because although they didn't make the headlines in the news their impact was still considerable.

Orde Wingate was assigned to Palestine from 1936-1941 and was instrumental in training the Palmach and setting those soldiers on the course for creating the modern Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). His loyalty and support for the Israeli cause was unique because even though the British were in Palestine to manage the situation they showed a policy of not taking sides. Wingate's belief in the Jewish cause had long lasting effects because his influence in organizing forces that would later fight for Israeli independence in 1948. He was an individual that didn't show dominant influence but still has latent effects on the international politics of the Middle East in the interwar period.

Orde Wingate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orde_Wingate

John Glubb was another British officer assigned to training the Arab Legion and would lay the groundwork for the modern Jordanian Army. He was critical in solidifying Jordan's frontier borders and pushing back Bedouin raiders and tribal uprisings during the mandate period. Glubb also led the Arab Legion into Palestine against the Israelis during the 1948 war. His influence spread across the entire chain of command of the Jordanian Armed Forces, from the King down to the lowest ranking private. Like Wingate, he was fully committed to the Jordanian cause and would wear Arab military clothing instead of his British uniform. Without his guidance and leadership on the battlefield the early history of Jordan may have turned out differently.

Both men are crucial to the international politics of the Levant region because of their leadership abilities. In critical times such as the mandate era and Israeli independence leadership shaped the outcomes of international conflicts. Kings and Prime Ministers may have initiated international events and set them up but individuals on the ground with the soldiers and rebels carrying out these policies made history.

Glubb on the far right beside Emir Abdullah in 1944

http://www.jordanjubilee.com/history/abdullah.htm

Guns are fun

I was sick for Monday's class and I missed the talk about proliferation so I decided to blog about guns, my experience with them in the Middle East, and how you can trace international politics through history by looking at what firearm your Arab or Israeli friend is carrying.

I have seen soldiers, police and sometimes random people with guns in every country I have visited in the Middle East. They all carry a variety of weapons, some from the old Communist bloc, WWII, WWI, Western Europe, the USA, or China. I have been through gun shops in the Middle East and they also display the past 75 years of weapons history on their shelves. When I go to these places or see people with different weapons I ask myself why and how they got there.

I've posted a ton of pictures and I'll explain the weapons and history. You can see how past foreign policy and events in the Middle East push arms and ammunition around the region. Even though these events happened a long time ago, weapons and ammunition still exist.

The following four pictures are from the military museum in Tunis.

These four rifles somehow made it into the Tunisian arsenal. You have weapons from Germany, the United States, France, and Sweden during WWII. These were probably leftovers form the North Africa Campaign. Weapons leftover during war, especially during a fast paced campaign like North Africa, make it into the hands of anyone who can get them.

Two British Vickers Machine guns

American and French Weapons. The reason Tunisia got these weapons is from being a French protectorate until the mid 1950's and because Tunisia is one of the highest recipients of US military aid.

French, Czech, and German Rifles from WWI and WWII

Israeli IDF soldiers with American M16's and M4's. Note that the soldier on the far right has an older version of the M16 while everyone else has the M4 carbine.

                                        

Jordanian soldiers with American made M4 carbines. We are strong allies with both Jordan and Israel. Even though both dont have a friendly history we give or sell them weapons.

Iran 1979. The Iranian on the left is holding an American M1 Garand, the iconic rifle from WWII that General Patton described as "The greatest battle implement ever devised". We gave the Shah a ton of arms and ammunition to prop him up. Ironically, Americans can still buy Iranian ammunition for this rifle that is from the 1950's when we gave it to them.  The case the ammo comes in still has the crest of the Shah on it. http://samcoglobal.com/Ammo-30-06.html

Yemen gun market. In the background are AKM's, the updated version of the AK-47. All different models from each of the countries that produce them are represented here. The rifles behind the guy's head are British Enfields. Remember the British controlled the south until the 1960's. The guy is also holds two British Webley revolvers from the WWII era.

Iranian soldiers carrying German HK G3 rifles. Germany sold the rights to produce this rifle to Iran before the 1979 revolution. I have seen these rifles pictured in the hands of Hezbollah fighters, Syrian Army soldiers, and in Yemen. 

Israelis during the 1948 war. The fighter up top is using a British Enfield, the  fight below him an American m1917 rifle, the soldier directly in front is using an WWI machine gun from Eastern Europe.

Three Israeli soldiers from the Givati Brigade. The soldiers on the opposite ends are holding American Thompson sub-machine guns from WWII. The guy in the Middle is holding a WWII German K98 rifle. After WWII the Allies took weapons leftover from the war and used them for military aid as a form of containment against communism. The US and Western Europe also helped out Israelis with weapons and ammo during the 1948 war. 

Israeli soldiers link up a German MG34 Machine gun from WWII during the 1948 war. The Rifle in the front leaning up against the side of the trench is a WWII German K98 rifle. If you really want to analyze the rifle you can tell it is a late war K98 because of the stamped and welded front muzzle band, meaning this rifle was part of the German's final production push in 1944-1945. I forgot to mention that the Israelis took these German rifles and re-chambered the caliber to the standard US caliber at the time so they could use the more plentiful American ammunition. The US had allowed multiple countries to produce ammunition for the weapons it sold. According to cartridgecollectors.org the following countries produced US M2 Ball ammunition: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Cambodia, Canado, Chile, China, Colombia, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Dominican Rep. Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Morocco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Phillippines, Poland, Rep. of South Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Vietnam, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Thailand, Turkey, UK, USA, and Yugoslavia.

Arab soldiers during the 1948 war. If you take notice they are using British weapons just like the Israelis.

Arab Legion Soldier guarding the border between Israel and Jordan. Notice he is holding a British Enfield rifle. Remember that British Officers staffed the high positions of the Jordanian army until the 1956. The British supplied the Jordanians since the Great Arab Revolt during WWI.

Israelis using the exact same type of British rifle during training. 

Egyptian soldiers running with the Egyptian version of the AK-47. The Soviets sold the pattern to them.  One way to get equipment during the cold war was to play the US and USSR off each other. Egypt currently receives millions, if not over a billion dollars in military aid from the US. 

Total number of AK-47/74 rifles and its derivatives produced:

The BBC estimates between 70-100 million have been produced around the world and also states that the 2005 Small Arms Survey believes small arms like the AK-47/74 and other weapons you see in this blog are "responsible for some 60-90% of direct war deaths". 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4380348.stm

So why do I think this is important? For one, organizations like SIPRI (http://www.sipri.org/) don't track small arms sales. They only track the big stuff like tanks, missile systems, and helicopters. Weapons like the AK-47 and its derivatives have been produced in the millions and sent all over the world not once but probably a few times as countries buy and sell weapons and ammunition. This leads to my second point. People can get weapons easily. Even in the US we have our 2nd Amendment and its easy to buy a firearm. In countries like Somalia or Yemen you can get an full auto AK-47 relatively cheap and carry it where ever. In countries where the government is weak and there is little regulation you find lots of weapons and ammunition. As governments are being toppled and countries destabilized from the Arab Spring the proliferation of small arms increases either as country's arsenals are overrun or weapons are sent to bolster a regime or rebels.

A Yemeni man enjoying qat and a cigarette

                                                  Terraced Qat farms in Yemen

Water Diary

The past few posts revolved around our water diary assignment. I finally got to calculate my yearly water usage. I also broke down my usage into different categories.

Daily usage:
Water used in my house/yard: 88 gallons/day
Water in my diet (includes virtual water): 1,092 gallons/day
Water for transportation and energy: 558 gallons/day
Water used by myself: 121 gallons/day

This daily usage amounts to 2910 cubic meters of water per year which is slightly over the US national average of 2842 cubic meters per year. If you notice the largest consumption of water is in my diet. It is impossible to drink 1,092 gallons of water per day, but that is not what the calculation looks at. It calculates "virtual water", which is water that is used to make a certain food product (a 3 oz. piece of beef takes hundreds of gallons of water to produce).

Since our class this past week focused on resources, one of them being water, I compared the US's intake to countries in the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula.

US Average: 2842 cubic meters/ year with 20.2% of water imported (virtual water)
Saudi Arabia: 1849 cubic meters/ year with 66.1 % of water imported (virtual water)
Yemen: 901 cubic meters/year with 75% water imported (virtual water)
Kuwait: 2072 cubic meters/year with 89% imported (virtual water)
UAE: 3136 cubic meters/year with 75.7% imported (virtual water)

What is immediately noticeable when comparing the US to the countries of the Arabian Peninsula is the difference in amounts of imported water. Since the climate on the peninsula is so dry and hot and lacks water the states overcome this by importing goods that require large amounts of water to produce.  Each country is reliant on outside sources to survive, amounting to a security problem. States can't feed themselves and need others to grow the necessary crops. However, some states are countering this by buying foreign land where crops such as wheat and rice are grown. Although this is not the case for all countries. I want to focus on Yemen because it is the poorest country in the Middle East and because of the current problem of terrorism there. Water plays a key part in local politics and international politics.

Yemen's revolution and regime change left parts of the country that were initially under government control in a state of neglect. Limited government planning and intervention in the Yemeni economy before the revolution was a result of corruption from Ali Abdullah Saleh's circle of family and close friends taking over control of the economy for personal interest. President Hadi is still trying to unify Yemen but this process is slow and Saleh's influence is still present in the government. This exacerbated problems such as water availability. Poor economic conditions and little hope of making any progress after the revolution can be directly linked to the reason for Yemenis joining anti-government movements and Al-Qaeda. Currently Al-Qaeda can offer a monthly salary that dwarfs any salary made from farming or trying to make it by in local business.

Additionally, the Yemeni economy is offset by local drug problems. Yemeni men chew the locally grown plant called qat. Qat is a stimulant drug chewed for long periods of time and requires large amounts of water to grow. It is only  grown locally in Yemen and most men would rather chew qat and use what water they have to keep growing it instead of using water for elsewhere. This present a major problem for a country on the brink of a major famine. Yemen is on a course of further decay with poor government regulation of water resources and an economy reliant on 75% imports. I believe Yemen shows that it isn't necessarily drinking water that is so sought after. Virtual water and the economic conditions that revolve around it have effects locally, on the security of the country, and an impact on international politics.
                 

Water logged

So I logged my water usage for Sunday, September 30. This is step one of two for my assignment. Here is what I logged:

Water for washing: approx. 100 gallons (between 1 10 minute shower, shaving, cleaning and brewing 5 gallons of brown apple ale, baking shepards pie)
Food and drink: drank 6 bottles of water, two cups of coffee, 1 glass of OJ, 2 big glasses of milk, 1 large bowl of cereal, 2 pints of home brew, 1 cliff bar, veggie burger w/ lettuce, tomato, cheese, made shepherd's pie for 7 people, potato salad, 1 apple, 1 loaf of bread, peas and carrots
Transportation: approx. 3 gallons of gasoline (drove 1 hour)
Any durable items purchased:  none

So for 1 day I used approximately 100 gallons. Now a lot of that was used up in the brewing process but that is still a lot of water if you brew a lot (My pop brews nearly every two weeks).

The rest of my water diary blog will be completed soon so stay tuned!